Used without permission from Tim Trueman's Flickr photostream, who is in no way associated with the content of this article
The terrorist threat from the use of UAV technology isn’t anything new. Hezbollah has been using UAVs against Israel since 2004. This 2008 article on UAVs and terrorism states that “According to globalsecurity.org Iran has a supplied a number of UAV’s capable of carrying surveillance equipment as well as explosives, to Hezbollah in recent years.” A number of reports discuss the capability of and utility of UAV technology to terrorists including for aerial surveillance and reconnaissance or for targeted attacks - Institute for Defense Analysis 2005 report on “Terrorist Use of Improvised or Commercially Available Precision-Guided UAVs at Stand-Off Ranges: An Approach for Formulating Mitigation Considerations“, ArmedForces 2008 article “Military Experts Highlight Terrorist UAV Fears“, 2005 MIPT report on “Threat of Terrorism using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Technical Aspects“, 2008 RAND Monograph on “Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland“.
This recent DIY Drones blog post on “Do Terrorists Want UAS, too?” discusses an AUVSI article that asks how likely it is that terrorists will use UAVs. The reasoning goes that the low cost and wide availability of parts and know-how (DIY Drones is an open community boasting over 6300 members from all over the world) makes UAVs attractive to terrorists for their nefarious purposes. The major points of contention are over how terrorists would likely utilize this technology, either as a surveillance and reconnaissance platform for planning or with an explosive (or otherwise deadly, such as chemical or biological) payload as an offensive weapon. The plausibility seems undeniable.
Is the US Intelligence Community equipped to deal with this threat? This DHS Information Bulletin from July 2004 on “Remotely Piloted Vehicle Threat” (marked as FOUO classification, disclosed by NEFA Foundation) states that “Although RCAs (Remotely Controlled Aircraft) have not been used by terrorists to date, because of their novel capabilities it is prudent to consider the possibility from the point of view of potential consequences, use scenarios, and indicators of such use.”, further noting that “Although protective measures against RPV (Remotely Piloted Vehicles) attacks are not well developed, awareness of the threat is an important first step in this development.” The report suggests several unclassified level protection measures, mostly through BOLO (”Be on the Lookout”) awareness at FBI, hobby shop owners and autopilot suppliers to report suspicious purchases, and local law enforcement to report suspicious individuals taking GPS measurements. A secret-level classified annex is mentioned, and one can only hope it involves more vigilant intelligence collection and pre-indicators that flag suspicious individuals with DIY Drone kits for more in depth investigation into their intent and ties to terrorist groups (with the preservation of the privacy of DIY Drone hobbyists).
It seems more likely that a terrorist group operating in the US will be discovered through “guilt by association” types of analysis (following the flow of terrorist financing, for instance) or will raise suspicion in the process of making home-made explosives (HME) - either through the purchase of certain monitored materials, or otherwise, rather than being discovered as tinkering with UAV drones.
In my next article, I’ll discuss “UAV or UFO?”, the lack of adequate UAV sighting databases and why this should be of concern to the Intelligence Community.
